PVC material market: current situation and factors affecting demand.
Recently, the dynamics of the PVC material market have attracted much attention from the industry. From the supply side, domestic PVC production capacity continues to rise, reaching 27.86 million tons by the end of 2024, an increase of 2.2% compared to the previous year.
Since the end of January, the operating rate of the equipment has been at a high level. Even with some equipment maintenance, the weekly production of PVC in China last week was still 473900 tons. The production in January reached 2.0963 million tons, with both month on month and year-on-year growth.
1. On the demand side, downstream recovery is slow. Although there was marginal improvement after Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival), the improvement was limited. The current downstream comprehensive operating rate is 23.75%, and the operating rates of pipe and profile equipment are 25.63% and 18%, respectively.
The real estate industry, as an important downstream sector, still has weak industry data, insufficient new construction, and policy incentives are difficult to effectively promote terminal demand.
2. In terms of inventory, social inventory increased by 4.05% month on month to 856200 tons, and the available days of enterprise factory inventory reached 7.9 days. In terms of cost, the loose supply in the coal and crude oil markets provides limited support for the cost of PVC produced by calcium carbide and ethylene methods. The price has been fluctuating in the range of 5152-5277 for a long time since February.
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There are various factors that affect the demand for PVC materials in the market. The macroeconomic growth is directly related to the demand for PVC in various industries, with demand increasing during prosperity and decreasing during recession.
Interest rates and monetary policy can also affect the willingness of enterprises to invest in production, which in turn affects PVC procurement.
In terms of policies and regulations, stricter environmental policies may restrict the production and use of PVC; The support or restrictions of industrial policies on downstream industries such as construction and automobiles indirectly affect the demand for PVC.
At the industry development level, the development status of industries such as construction, electronics, automotive, and healthcare is closely related to the demand for PVC. Technological progress may expand the application of PVC through the development of new materials, or it may reduce its market share due to the emergence of alternative materials.
Geographically, the differences in economic development level and industrial layout result in varying demands for PVC in different regions. Understanding these will help companies better grasp the direction of the PVC market.
